ANALYSIS: Responding to "Employers announced 153,000 job cuts this October, the highest figure for the month since 2003."
Things are just getting started.
The mass layoffs, as I see it, are occurring for three primary reasons:
1) AI replacements of human workers.
2) Money printing --> Inflation --> Reduced discretionary purchasing by consumers leading to large-scale retail job losses.
3) Trump's tariffs causing chaos and disruptions in supply chains, strongly impacting U.S. manufacturing and small businesses.
I asked competent AI to calculate an estimate percentage of each of these three factors in terms of causation of the job losses. The answers:
1. AI Replacements: ~25%
2. Inflation/Reduced Consumer Spending: ~50%
3. Trump Tariffs/Supply Chain Disruptions: ~25%
Importantly, NONE of these factors is reversing. They are all getting worse (for now), with Trump committed to more currency printing (debt spending), which will drive further inflation, while he is also committed to deploying tariffs as geopolitical weapons, despite the increasing economic harm it causes U.S. consumers and businesses.
In addition, AI cognitive competence is rapidly improving, with estimated doubling of cognitive-based skills replacement every 9 months. Thus, the number of human job losses resulting from AI replacement will dramatically increase, possibly doubling every 9 months for many cycles to come. I would not be surprised if 2026 sees job losses of over 5 million in the USA alone. (There are nearly 2.5 million jobs in the customer service sector alone, and nearly 80% of those jobs can be replaced by AI right now, according to Goldman Sachs.)
Bottom line? The U.S. consumer economy is about to get "rekd." Trump and Bessent can continue to try to gaslight the country into claiming we have entered a new "Golden Age," but fewer and fewer people will believe such sky-high claims when they have lost their jobs and are facing evictions and repossessions of their vehicles, while defaulting on their student loans (such defaults are already reaching record territory right now, while auto repos are also skyrocketing).
Things are about to go from "concerning" to "catastrophic" for the U.S. economy, and in my view, very few people in power are willing to face this reality. Denial is not a solution to these profound, destructive trends, but denial is what the GOP is going to be running on in 2026 and 2028. It is unlikely to be persuasive.